A Monte Carlo simulation reports a 75% chance that prototyping tasks will be delayed 17 business days. Based on the likelihood and consequence table, which location on the risk matrix corresponds to this scenario?

A Monte Carlo simulation reports a 75% chance that prototyping tasks will be delayed 17 business days. Based on the likelihood and consequence table, which location on the risk matrix corresponds to this scenario?

• A. L = 2; C = 4
• B. L = 3; C = 3
• C. L = 4; C = 2
• D. L = 5; C = 1

Answer: (C)

Mapping a probability to a likelihood level and the impact of the delay to a consequence level is how a risk matrix is interpreted. A 75% chance falls into the “likely” band on the likelihood scale, not into the near-certainty range. The 17-business-day delay represents a schedule impact that’s noticeable but not catastrophic, which the table characterizes as a moderate consequence. Combining those two ratings places the risk at the intersection of “likely” and “moderate.” That specific cell is the one used for this scenario, matching the correct option. The other cells would require a higher probability (almost certain) or a larger schedule impact than moderate.

Mapping a probability to a likelihood level and the impact of the delay to a consequence level is how a risk matrix is interpreted. A 75% chance falls into the “likely” band on the likelihood scale, not into the near-certainty range. The 17-business-day delay represents a schedule impact that’s noticeable but not catastrophic, which the table characterizes as a moderate consequence. Combining those two ratings places the risk at the intersection of “likely” and “moderate.” That specific cell is the one used for this scenario, matching the correct option. The other cells would require a higher probability (almost certain) or a larger schedule impact than moderate.