Which estimation technique uses optimistic, most likely, pessimistic estimates to calculate expected duration or cost?

Which estimation technique uses optimistic, most likely, pessimistic estimates to calculate expected duration or cost?

• A. Three-point
• B. Analog
• C. Parametric
• D. Bottom-up

Answer: (A)

Three-point estimation uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates to calculate an expected duration or cost. This approach recognizes uncertainty in the work and weights the most probable outcome more heavily, often via the formula (O + 4M + P)/6 to produce a single, more reliable expectation. It also supports risk analysis by showing a range and the potential impact of uncertainty. Other techniques use different data sources: analog relies on historical data from similar projects, parametric applies unit rates to quantity, and bottom-up sums estimates for all components. So, the three-point method is the one that explicitly uses three estimates to derive the expected value.

Three-point estimation uses optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates to calculate an expected duration or cost. This approach recognizes uncertainty in the work and weights the most probable outcome more heavily, often via the formula (O + 4M + P)/6 to produce a single, more reliable expectation. It also supports risk analysis by showing a range and the potential impact of uncertainty. Other techniques use different data sources: analog relies on historical data from similar projects, parametric applies unit rates to quantity, and bottom-up sums estimates for all components. So, the three-point method is the one that explicitly uses three estimates to derive the expected value.